Economic Insights – April 2013

Our outlook for the U.S. economy continues to become more upbeat, despite lingering concerns about the EU and China. Based on the fundamentals, we place the likelihood of a recession in 2013 at only about 10 percent.

Despite concerns from many that the end of the payroll tax cut was going to damage consumer spending, overall retail sales increased in February by the most in five months. At the same time, retail sales were revised up for January. While much of the gain was due to higher gasoline prices, .....

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