The U.S. economy rebounded in the second quarter from the supposed decline in real GDP in the first quarter. Our models indicate that when all is said and done, the
-0.2 percent reported in the first quarter will be revised to around +0.5 percent and the second quarter will ultimately be reported to have come in at 2.8 percent.
Here is our assessment of what really happened in the second quarter:
Let's start with consumption. Auto sales rose at a 12.4 percent annual rate in the second quarter. But "real" (inflation-adjusted) .....