Economic Insights – August 2015

The U.S. economy rebounded in the second quarter from the supposed decline in real GDP in the first quarter. Our models indicate that when all is said and done, the

-0.2 percent reported in the first quarter will be revised to around +0.5 percent and the second quarter will ultimately be reported to have come in at 2.8 percent.

Here is our assessment of what really happened in the second quarter:

Let's start with consumption. Auto sales rose at a 12.4 percent annual rate in the second quarter. But "real" (inflation-adjusted) .....