Let’s take a look at the U.S. economy and what lies ahead.
We’ll start with the consumer. After booming in March, retail sales decelerated in April. Some of this was due to a later than usual Easter holiday.
The past four late Easters were in 2000, 2003, 2006, and 2011; in each case, retail sales (excluding auto sales) were well below where our models would otherwise forecast and the same was true in April 2014.
That’s because the government has trouble seasonally-adjusting retail sales when Easter comes late. A better ga.....