Economic Insights – March 2014

So far, the big story of 2014 has been the impact of unusually cold weather in the United States that began in the fourth quarter of 2013. One of the first numbers to show weakness was the January ISM manufacturing index. This was followed by weak auto sales, slow payroll growth, and declines in overall retail sales, housing starts, and industrial production.

A number of analysts argue that only a portion of the slow-down is due to weather. They correctly observe that national average temperatures were just a little below norm.....