Economic Insights – March 2012

Even as the Dow breaks through 13,000, many still think the U.S. economy is teetering on the brink of a long-dreaded double-dip.  Meanwhile, we argue that the absence of sunny skies does not mean that a tornado is about to hit. Consider the worries generated by the recent weakness in consumer confidence.  The Conference Board’s measure is currently 61, well below its 20-year average of 93.  The University of Michigan’s measure of confidence is 72.5, versus a 20-year average of 87.6. Both measures of confidence are lower than they were a year ago, despite roughly 2 million more payroll jobs —.....